serious is this? we'll have the details. and paul ryan hasn't helped mitt romney a bit in wisconsin. now the congressman may have trouble hanging on to his own house seat. john nichols will join me with that. we'll be right back. >>> thanks for staying with us tonight. four days out, and the state of the race favors president obama. seriously. now if you look at it, it is never a lock, never going to be a lock. but the facts are here, in the swing states offering president obama is a clear path to victory. he's ahead in the polls and he's rising. in ohio, you've got president obama, he's been leading all along, and as you can see in the latest poll, averaged from real clear politics, he still is. this is why mitt romney is desperately campaigning in pennsylvania. it is a hail mary pass because he knows he's probably going to lose ohio. in wisconsin, president obama maintains a comfortable five-point lead. president obama is also maintaining his lead in nevada. in iowa, president obama is still ahead. the national average is closer, but president obama has been on the rise there as well.